Crash multiplier calculator: the chance of reaching any cash-out
Type the RTP from the game's rules and the multiplier you would cash out at. The calculator shows the share of rounds that reach it under the standard crash model, how many rounds that is on average, and what that target costs per KES 100 staked over many rounds.
Updated
- 48.5%of rounds reach 2x
- 2.1about one round in this many reaches it
- -3.00expected result per KES 100 staked at this target, over many rounds
Standard model: the share of rounds reaching multiplier m is RTP divided by m. Spribe does not publish the distribution behind Aviator, so read these as the model's long-run averages, never as a forecast of the next round.
Common cash-out targets side by side
Illustrative example at the RTP above. Look at the last column: it is the same on every row, because the target changes how often you are paid, not the average cost.
| Cash-out target | Rounds that reach it | About one round in | Paid per KES 100 when it hits | Expected result per KES 100 staked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2x | 80.8% | 1.2 | KES 120 | -3.00 |
| 1.5x | 64.7% | 1.5 | KES 150 | -3.00 |
| 2x | 48.5% | 2.1 | KES 200 | -3.00 |
| 3x | 32.3% | 3.1 | KES 300 | -3.00 |
| 5x | 19.4% | 5.2 | KES 500 | -3.00 |
| 10x | 9.70% | 10 | KES 1,000 | -3.00 |
| 20x | 4.85% | 21 | KES 2,000 | -3.00 |
| 50x | 1.94% | 52 | KES 5,000 | -3.00 |
| 100x | 0.970% | 103 | KES 10,000 | -3.00 |
How the numbers are worked out
Two inputs, two formulas. With RTP written as a fraction r and a target multiplier m, the chance that a round reaches m is r divided by m. The expected result of a KES 100 auto cash-out at m is the payout times its chance, minus the stake: 100 x m x (r / m) - 100, which simplifies to 100 x (r - 1).
Illustrative example at 97% RTP and a 1.5x target: 0.97 / 1.5 = 0.6467, so 64.7% of rounds reach 1.5x, about two rounds in three. When it hits, KES 100 becomes KES 150. On average that is 0.6467 x KES 150 = KES 97 back per KES 100 staked, a result of minus KES 3.
Why the last column never moves
The m in the payout and the m in the chance cancel out, so every target returns the RTP on average. A low target such as 1.2x pays often and in small amounts; a high target such as 50x pays rarely and in large ones. The spread of results between sessions changes a great deal. The average cost per KES 100 does not: at 97% it is KES 3 on every row of the table.
This is also why no mix of targets, doubling routine or two-bet split can turn the average positive. Each bet carries the same expected result, and a sum of negative numbers stays negative. The guide on auto cash-out and expected value works through the common systems one at a time.
What the calculator cannot tell you
It cannot tell you what the next round will do. Under L.N. 112 r.45(2) of the 2026 Conduct of Gambling Operations Regulations, the random number generator behind every game of chance must be certified by the Authority or its approved agent, and the theoretical return to player has to be disclosed to the Authority (r.45(4)). A run of early crashes does not make a high multiplier due, and the round history on the game screen describes the past only.
It also cannot confirm the RTP your operator uses. Spribe's game page states 97% for Aviator but does not say whether an operator can choose a different setting, so check the rules screen inside the game and enter what it shows. For the reasoning behind the r / m formula, read the probability of reaching any multiplier and what an RTP of 97% means.
Privacy
The figures are worked out in your browser. What you type is not sent anywhere and is not stored; the privacy page explains what the server does record.
18+ Gambling is addictive. Play responsibly. A negative expected result is the price of every round, so set a deposit limit before you play. Help, limits and self-exclusion.
Questions about the calculator
Does a low cash-out target lose less money?
No. A low target loses less often, in smaller steps, but the average result per KES 100 staked is the same as at any other target: minus KES 3 at 97% RTP. Illustrative example: at 1.2x, 80.8% of rounds pay KES 120, which averages KES 97 back per KES 100.
Why is 2x reached less than half the time?
Because the RTP is below 100%. Under the standard model 0.97 / 2 = 0.485, so 48.5% of rounds reach 2x. The missing 1.5 points are where the game's 3% margin comes from at that target.
Can I use the calculator for crash games other than Aviator?
Yes, if the game follows the standard model. Enter the RTP from that game's own rules screen. If a game uses different rules, such as an extra feature that pays outside the curve, the figures here will not match it.
Does the calculator keep what I type?
No. It runs in your browser with no accounts or forms that send data, and what you type is not part of what the analytics tag sends. Reload the page and the defaults come back.