The probability of reaching any multiplier in a crash game

This page turns an RTP into a probability for every cash-out target. For a target not shown here, the crash multiplier calculator works out the chance for any multiplier you enter. All figures below use the standard model with the 97% RTP that Spribe lists for Aviator.

The formula: P(m) = r / m

Write r for the RTP as a decimal and m for the multiplier you want to reach. In the standard model used to describe provably fair crash games, the chance that a round climbs to at least m is r divided by m. At r = 0.97, that is 0.97 / m.

The model follows from one design choice: every fixed cash-out target should return the same share of stakes. A target of m returns m stakes when it lands, so it can only land in r / m of rounds if its average return is to equal r. Multiply the two and the m cancels out, leaving r.

Aviator's own crash-point distribution is not published by Spribe. What follows is therefore the standard model applied to the stated 97%, not a set of numbers Spribe gives for each multiplier.

Probability table from 1.5x to 100x

The last column is the point of the table. Every row averages KES 97 on a KES 100 stake, because a rarer target pays proportionally more. A target changes how often you win and how much each win pays, not the share the game keeps, as explained in what a 97% RTP means for your stakes.

Why is 2x reached in less than half of rounds?

A 2x cash-out doubles the stake, so a fair game would reach it in exactly half of rounds. The house edge comes out of that half: 0.97 / 2 = 0.485, or 48.5%. Across 1,000 rounds, that is about 485 that reach 2x and 515 that crash before it.

Illustrative example: 200 rounds of KES 100 with Auto Cash Out at 2x. On average about 97 of them pay KES 200, which returns KES 19,400 against KES 20,000 staked. The missing KES 600 is the edge on that turnover.

The same shaving shows up near 1x. Under the model, the chance of passing any multiplier just above 1x is 97%, so about 3 rounds in 100 end at 1.00x, before any cash-out can make a profit.

Doubling the target halves the chance

Because m sits in the denominator, the chance falls in step as the target rises. 10x is reached in 9.7% of rounds and 20x in 4.85%. Moving from 2x to 100x multiplies the payout by 50 and divides the chance by 50.

The same proportion sets how long a high multiplier tends to take. At 9.7% a round, 10x turns up about once every 10 rounds on average. Averages hide long gaps, though, as the next table shows.

How often a target misses several rounds in a row

Under the model each round is independent, so the chance of a run of misses is the miss rate multiplied by itself once per round. For 2x the miss rate is 51.5% a round; for 10x it is 90.3%.

Read the right-hand column closely. Ten rounds without a 10x happen in about 36% of stretches, and twenty in a row in about 13%. A long gap is ordinary, and it does not make the next round any more likely to reach 10x.

Independence is also why no app or signal can know the next crash point. Spribe's provably fair notes say only a hash of the next server seed is public before a round, while the seeds themselves can be checked once the round is over. The case against so-called predictors is set out in why Aviator predictor apps are scams.

The chance of seeing a big multiplier at least once

"About 1 round in 103" for 100x does not mean a 100x arrives within 103 rounds. The chance of seeing it at least once is 1 minus the chance of missing it every time. Under the model, that works out as follows.

Roughly 38% of 100-round stretches contain no 100x at all. A 100x on screen also pays only the bets that were still open and cashed out at that height. Anyone who cashed out earlier is paid at their own, lower multiplier.

What the model leaves out

Real games add rules the simple formula ignores. Spribe's rules treat a crash that lands precisely on the chosen Auto Cash Out figure as a loss, and that a win reaching the game's maximum is cashed out automatically. Both are edge cases, but they mean the formula describes the game in outline, not in every detail.

In Kenya, the generator itself must pass a statistical test of randomness: regulation 45(2) of the 2026 Conduct of Gambling Operations Regulations makes certification compulsory for all games of chance. BMM Testlabs, for one, asks providers for the hits and probabilities of each paying multiplier combination when it reviews a game's maths.

Probability is not prediction. The table says how often a target is reached over many rounds; it cannot say which round. For the odds and the law together, see the crash games in Kenya overview.